A Taiwan quickie
Pelosi lands in trouble
Trigger warning: This post was written in hurry. Expect exploding typos. Or tyops.
After a few “will she or won’t she moments,” Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, 2nd in line for the presidency should Biden take a permanent tumble, has landed in Taiwan. This is the highest level American official to visit Taiwan since Newt Gingrich dropped by in 1997, and China is viewing it as a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad day.
Why? I’ll give a quick explainer, but bear in mind, huge chunks of what I’m writing would either anger Beijing or Taipei. Years ago, one of my Chinese students became visibly agitated during a test. I took her out in the hall to see why (I thought perhaps the test was difficult because of the language gap) and discovered she was furious that I had given a map question asking where 20 “countries” were located, including Taiwan. “Taiwan is NOT a country! It is a part of China!” I’ve had many students from China and they aren’t all as easily angered as this young woman, but for many, it is a hot-button topic.
The Backstory
Taiwan is a large island about 100 miles off the coast of mainland China. At 14k square miles, it’s bigger than Maryland, smaller than West Virginia, and ten times the size of Long Island, where I live1. Its twenty-three million population is about the same as Florida or Sri Lanka. Of course, mainland China has 1.4 billion people, sixty times Taiwan’s population.
Taiwan did not become a part of China until it was conquered in the 17th century. Japan later acquired it after the Sino-Japanese War of 1894-1895 and ruled Taiwan for 50 years until the end of World War 2, when the island was returned to China.
After World War 2, two factions competed for control of China: the Nationalists, backed by the United States and led by Chiang Kai-shek (also called Jiang Jieshi), and the Communists, led by Mao Zedong. The Nationalists were defeated and Chiang and his army fled to Taiwan. They were protected from the pursuing Communist forces by the straits of Taiwan and the U.S. Navy.
For years, Taiwan was ruled as a Nationalist dictatorship, but not a separate country. The one thing both Chiang and Mao agreed on was there was only one China and they were legally in charge of all of it! In reality, of course, the Nationalists (the Republic of China, or ROC) just had the island, the Communists (the Peoples Republic of China, or PRC) everything else, but it was an amusing farce (less funny when China would occasionally shell some small Taiwanese controlled islands just off China’s coast). The world also agreed that there was only one “China” seat at the United Nations. Taiwan sat there until 1971 when a UN vote forced the ROC representative to get up and let a PRC mainland representative sit down.
Taiwan Transformed
After Chiang’s death in 1975, Taiwan became increasingly democratic. His son and successor, Chaing Ching-kuo allowed opposition parties to run candidates for office. In 1996, Taiwan held its first presidential elections, and in 2000 a Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) leader ended Nationalist Party rule. Taiwan had become a democracy.
The DPP emphasized Taiwan’s existence as a separate entity but usually stopped at the brink of calling it a completely separate country for fear of angering China and annoying its protector the United States. The U.S. has long offered guarantees that it would protect Taiwan from threats (meaning mainland China) but those assurances have become more cautious as China has become economically and militarily more powerful. The very popular President Tsai Ing-wen, elected in 2016, has pushed harder for independence without quite officially declaring it. “We don’t have a need to declare ourselves an independent state. We are an independent country already and we call ourselves the Republic of China, Taiwan.” This was after top Chinese official Wang Yi said that anyone calling for a separate independent Taiwan would “leave a stink for 10,000 years.”
President Tsai Ing-wen
America Standing Somewhat Firmish
In the game of Beijing vs. Taipei brinkmanship, America is the big question mark. How far would the United States go to protect its ally?
Officially, the United States agrees with the PRC that there is only one China, the one run from Beijing. America has no embassy in Taiwan; embassies are for countries. Instead, there is an “American Institute,” that operates just like an embassy. (Taiwan only has full diplomatic relations with 14 countries, including powerhouses Haiti, Tuvalu, and Paraguay.) America provides a great deal of military equipment for Taiwan’s 170,000-person military, including F16 fighters, attack helicopters, and advanced missile defense systems.
What would happen if China decided to pull the trigger for a full invasion? The PRC’s 2.8 million military is 15 times bigger than the ROC army but invasions are difficult. Getting troops across the Taiwan Strait in the face of fierce resistance at beaches that have long been prepared with bunkers and mines would be a headache for China’s generals (and a nightmare for the soldiers hitting those beaches). Still, China’s vastly larger forces might make a victory possible, unless the United States intervened.
From Foreign Policy’s “Taiwan Can Win a War With China” (2018).
Would America risk a war with another nuclear power simply to protect a semi-country and somewhat ally? That’s the big question and U.S. officials have been careful about making explicit guarantees. (In 2016, when President-elect Trump broke protocol and actually accepted a congratulatory call from President Tsai, it caused a diplomatic uproar. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang called it “a petty trick by Taiwan.”)
This may be changing. During a May 2022 visit to Japan, President Biden was asked point blank if the U.S. would support Taiwan in the event of a Chinese attack and he replied they would. “Yes. That’s the commitment we made.” Later, however, the Wall Street Journal reported, White House officials walked back that statement.
A White House official later said that U.S. policy regarding Taiwan hadn’t changed and that Mr. Biden “reiterated our commitment under the Taiwan Relations Act to provide Taiwan with the military means to defend itself.”
Pelosi’s sleepover
Pelosi’s visit is guaranteed to stir controversy in Beijing, Taipei, and Washington. China reacts angrily to any sign of approval or support given to Taiwan by any foreign power. Their position is that Taiwan is a breakaway province that will eventually be returned to China’s governance. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Huay Chunying said, “No matter for what reason Pelosi goes to Taiwan, it will be a stupid, dangerous, and unnecessary gamble. It is difficult to imagine a more reckless and provocative action.” Shortly before Pelosi arrived, China’s state television reported that Chinese jets were flying over the Taiwan Straits in a show of force and there were later reports of missiles being test fired near Taiwan (this is “normal” behavior for China when Taiwan has done something to piss them off). In preparation for Pelosi’s visit, the U.S. had deployed the aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan (with 90 aircraft) and the amphibious ship USS Tripoli to the Philippine Sea. On a more cheery note, in Taipei, the words “Speaker Pelosi, Welcome to TW” and “TW❤️US” were displayed on the city’s tallest skyscraper.
Side note: Pelosi’s visit sparked so much international interest that her plane became the most tracked aircraft by Flightrader24, a popular tracking site.
Why is Pelosi there? Her official statement said it was a show of support for democracy and not a change in policy towards Taiwan and China. Of course, because most Taiwanese voted for President Tsai and the pro-independence DPP, supporting Taiwanese democracy implies opposition to Beijing’s One-China policy.
Our Congressional delegation’s visit to Taiwan honors America’s unwavering commitment to supporting Taiwan’s vibrant Democracy.
Our visit is part of our broader trip to the Indo-Pacific — including Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea and Japan — focused on mutual security, economic partnership and democratic governance. Our discussions with Taiwan leadership will focus on reaffirming our support for our partner and on promoting our shared interests, including advancing a free and open Indo-Pacific region. America’s solidarity with the 23 million people of Taiwan is more important today than ever, as the world faces a choice between autocracy and democracy.Our visit is one of several Congressional delegations to Taiwan – and it in no way contradicts longstanding United States policy, guided by the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979, U.S.-China Joint Communiques and the Six Assurances. The United States continues to oppose unilateral efforts to change the status quo.
Note the final sentence. The U.S. opposes “unilateral efforts” to change things, meaning Taiwan shouldn’t declare independence on its own. That’s not the same as opposing Taiwan’s independence. In both Beijing and Taipei, Pelosi’s visit will be seen as offering some level of support for a sovereign Taiwan.
Pelosi also wrote an Op-Ed for the Washington Post that appeared as her plane landed. (I’m also linking to the copy on her site because it’s not paywalled.) She used some of the same words as her official statement, but the bulk of the Op-Ed had far stronger language and will undoubtedly anger Chinese officials.
Thirty years ago, I traveled in a bipartisan congressional delegation to China, where, in Tiananmen Square, we unfurled a black-and-white banner that read, “To those who died for democracy in China.” Uniformed police pursued us as we left the square. Since then, Beijing’s abysmal human rights record and disregard for the rule of law continue, as President Xi Jinping tightens his grip on power.
The CCP’s brutal crackdown against Hong Kong’s political freedoms and human rights — even arresting Catholic Cardinal Joseph Zen — cast the promises of “one-country, two-systems” into the dustbin. In Tibet, the CCP has long led a campaign to erase the Tibetan people’s language, culture, religion and identity. In Xinjiang, Beijing is perpetrating genocide against Muslim Uyghurs and other minorities. And throughout the mainland, the CCP continues to target and arrest activists, religious-freedom leaders and others who dare to defy the regime.
We cannot stand by as the CCP proceeds to threaten Taiwan — and democracy itself.
Indeed, we take this trip at a time when the world faces a choice between autocracy and democracy. As Russia wages its premeditated, illegal war against Ukraine, killing thousands of innocents — even children — it is essential that America and our allies make clear that we never give in to autocrats.
This language may cause heads to explode in Beijing. She mentions Tiananmen Square, where China crushed a pro-democracy movement in 1989, Hong Kong, where China has been clamping down on that city’s limited semi-autonomy, Tibet, and Xinjiang, using the provocative word “genocide.” I think her words are fair and accurate but I’m surprised to see them in print.
Who’s backing Pelosi’s play?
When word of a possible visit first surfaced, the Biden team expressed disapproval, later reinforced by the president himself. “The military thinks it’s not a good idea right now,” President Joe Biden told reporters on Wednesday when asked about Pelosi’s travel. “But I don’t know what the status of it is.”
The question hanging in the air for me is how much is Biden actually against Pelosi’s trip and Pelosi is acting independently (which seems odd) or is it that Pelosi is saying aggressive things that Biden can’t say and he may yet walk back?
Pelosi is certainly receiving bipartisan support for her trip. Before it was final, Republicans were already praising her decision. ““I don’t always agree with her, but on this one I applaud it,” Rep. Michael McCaul of Texas, the top Republican on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said in an interview. “It’s important that we show up in Taiwan and demonstrate to China that we are supportive. That’s a very strong statement for a speaker to go to Taiwan.””
On her landing, twenty-six Republican senators issued a statement in support, including Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and Republican Whip John Thune. Separately, Senator Dan Sullivan of Alaska said, “At the end of the day, you do not want the Chinese Communist Party dictating to senior American leaders where they can and cannot travel. ... She's there, we're supporting the trip, and we're closing ranks behind it.”
And where now?
Predicting the future is a mug’s game. The Taiwanese people want full independence. They don’t want to go the way of Tibet or Hong Kong. China, however, has staked a great deal of prestige on someday getting Taiwan back. They’ve also spent decades stoking nationalist sentiment among regular people which may be hard to contain in the face of Taiwan’s push for freedom. As I said earlier, I’ve seen in my Chinese students the kind of anger the combination of nationalism and Taiwan can produce. On the other hand, many of my students have expressed more nuanced views. A few hours ago, a New York Times writer reported that Weibo, China’s Twitter, was slowing from overuse. Many of the posts that were getting through were anti-war.
It’s 3 AM in Taipei. Nancy is probably asleep. What she’ll say tomorrow will be watched by a lot of very tense people.
Addendum: The visit seems to have gone well from the perspective of the U.S. and Taiwan, not so much from China. Pelosi met with Taiwanese legislators and Taiwan’s President Tsai as well as human rights activists. Crowds gathered to see the speaker: ““After all, she is so old and still made the effort to come to Taiwan, so I want to take the time to come and see her,” said Ms. Hung, 58, who added that she was a supporter of the speaker.”
It was a whirlwind visit. She arrived late on Tuesday and departed Wednesday afternoon (Taiwan time). Pelosi’s next stops are South Korea and Japan.
When I say I live on “Long Island,” I’m speaking in the geographic larger sense. More precisely, I live in Brooklyn, which is only technically part of Long Island. When New Yorkers say “Long Island,” they usually just mean the part of the island that ISN’T New York City. If you tell a Brooklynite they live on Long Island they’ll look vaguely pained like they’ve been hit with a touch of food poisoning. We don’t like to be associated with each other.
great article, thanks Carl. I wondered myself if Biden can't say it but they know things we don't, I saw someone on twitter claim that last year the CIA reported Beijing was planning an Oct '22 invasion, and perhaps they are sending a message here. A message they don't want to publicly announce. A warning to China that if they invade it won't be a cake walk.